According to statistics China National Energy Bureau recently released 2016: China photovoltaic new grid capacity is 34.54GW, net of about 4~7GW in 2015 has been installed but until 2016 grid installed capacity, 2016 China actual demand is as high as 30GW. Compared with the high growth last year, Chinese actual demand may be slightly reduced to about 25GW this year, however, the light is Chinese local battery capacity in this year will be extended to about 10GW, more serious this year more pessimistic let pile up in excess of requirement of market prices is one disaster after another.
2017 shipment centralization
Looking back in 2016, the hot demand in China has changed the ranking of the top ten manufacturers. In addition to the crystal, by 6.7GW component shipments ranked number one on the throne, China domestic demand GCL integration, Leye photovoltaic shipments increased, also let the crystal products for the strength of Suntech group ranked among the top ten manufacturers shipments. In contrast to global demand this year last year, and may even be slightly reduced under the condition that the shipment is still growing in the top five manufacturers branch, TRW, atesi, crystal Han Hua, JA will occupy more than 40% of global shipments, maintenance module shipments more concentrated trend.
Diamond cut silicon wafers resist single crystal heat
Last year, single crystal heat, the first half of this year, the single crystal silicon wafer from the remarkable boom continue to stock, in two, central Lungi silicon factory before the four ~ May new capacity gradually released, silicon shortage failed to have any relief. In order to improve the mastery of the supply, many vertical integration manufacturers begin to return to the middle section of the production capacity for the monocrystalline silicon sheet. In the case of monocrystalline silicon wafer factory and vertical integration factory, monocrystalline silicon will return to a slightly excess capacity after the third quarter. Prices will go down sharply with third quarters of flat demand.
If the silicon prices fall, P type single crystal components of the price will be more obvious, mainly for manufacturers of polycrystalline diamond wire cutting and maintain competitiveness, import polysilicon becomes imperative option, but the black silicon technology and the situation is still complicated collocation. Not only the dry and wet etching technology, additive direct route balance, silicon plant, battery factory is still weighing import by a party of black silicon technology, the stability of black silicon solar cells will still need to solve the efficiency problem and appearance. In view of this, vertical integration manufacturers also have wafer cell components, probably in the third quarter leading force to push the black silicon components, black silicon products to promote the pilot. It is expected that black silicon products will be significantly increased next year, so that polycrystalline silicon chip can accept diamond wire cut polysilicon chip, the overall cost of polycrystalline components can be reduced by about US$0.015/W, in order to contend with the high growth of single crystal city.
Due to the limited capacity of equipment manufacturers, the introduction of PERC technology is still dominated by single crystal in recent years. In the face of steel wire cutting down the issue is expected to have the capacity of menacing, crystal manufacturers will accelerate PERC technology import and promote efficiency. Not only at the end of this year, single crystal PERC mainstream products will stand on the 300W pass, the expansion of PERC capacity throughout the year may also be higher than previously expected, reaching 12~15GW range, PERC economies of scale will gradually emerge. Then, the general assembly of single crystal 280W and crystal PERC295~300W spreads will continue to shrink, PERC300W components and PERT components, N type heterojunction (Hetrojuction) component wattage output gap is reduced to less than 10%, the cost is far lower than that of N technology.
The increment and price reduction of single crystal PERC will greatly impact the market of general single crystal and N type. There will also be more and more manufacturers to consider the options for all single crystal production lines with PERC technology in 2~3. Based on the above, the expansion of PERC technology, diamond wire cutting polysilicon collocation black silicon technology is not for the tide of this year, the company will not have failed to keep pace with the annual price significantly in the off-season, the market reshuffle crisis period.